Tuesday, November 13, 2007

A Bullish Proposal

Tonight I submit a bullish wave count shown above. As you can see the pattern exhibits a expanding wave progression. This is the kind of pattern you would expect to show up in a sector experiencing parabolic moves. Of course the fear remains in place until the last moment of euphoria when the pattern tips over. My reading of the chart tonight suggest the pattern has not tipped over in spite of the near 60 point drop in the index. In fact If I'm right then the impulse wave in this set is just starting. It's a little hard to believe , I know, especially with some traditional indicators flashing sell right now. You have to think a little beyond the short term TA to see whats happening here. I think most followers of this sector can appreciate what it would mean for gold to surpass its all time nominal high. That would be a all out buy signal on the sector, and the public would finally start to get involved. Perhaps this wave pattern is telling us something about what gold wants to do.

S.M. Himes

Monday, November 5, 2007

Why 1050?

The greatest trend channel and fib expansion about the recent consolidation suggest 1050 will be the major battle. Jim Sinclair has suggest this figure for good reason.
S.M. Himes

Saturday, November 3, 2007

What Bothers This Bull

Actually it doesnt bother me at all. I have to admit that shares have been lagging the metal during this whole bull market. Historically, the xau/gold ratio has been much higher. Many shares were much higher relative to the metal during the bear market of the 90s. That has driven me nuts as I watched this thing develop. Ive come to the conclusion that this is typical bull market behaviour during the early stages of a bull market. Yes, you heard right. It's still very early. I think I see the setup on the chart above for a simple 123 wave count. Many wavers have attempted to apply typical TA methodologies to this bull market and are not getting the big picture. Wave progression in a gold bull market is geometric. Thats why the monthly macd on the xau chart is hooking higher on every phase. Even the log charts are rising in a nonlinear pattern. So what does it all mean? Well , we have recently had a multi decade breakout on the xau chart. This is a big deal despite the bears call for doom. Personally, my view is that the sector is on a momentum buy and it will not retrace until a momentum high is established. That will mark a significant time consolidation point which we need to pay attention to. The period between that point and the next major move will be one in which this chart I have posted tonight builds its base for the investment boom of the century. In other words it will be the accumulation phase of the real mccoy. I expect shares to outperform during the whole consolidation as this base builds for a massive breakout. Don't get too excited, Its going to take time to setup.
S.M. Himes

Gold Seasonality

Gold Seasonality
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